Background: Precisely predicting the short- and long-term survival of patients with cancer is important. The tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage can accurately predict the long-term, but not short-term, survival of cancer. Nutritional status can affect the individual status and short-term outcomes of patients with cancer. Our hypothesis was that incorporating TNM stage and nutrition-related factors into one nomogram improves the survival prediction for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).
Method: This multicenter prospective primary cohort included 1373 patients with CRC, and the internal validation cohort enrolled 409 patients with CRC. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analyses were used to select prognostic indicators and develop a nomogram. The concordance (C)-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the prognostic discriminative ability of the nomogram, TNM stage, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PGSGA), and TNM stage + PGSGA models. The overall survival (OS) curve of risk group stratification was calculated based on the nomogram risk score.
Results: TNM stage, radical resection, reduced food intake, activities and function declined, and albumin were selected to develop the nomogram. The C-index and calibration plots of the nomogram showed good discrimination and consistency for CRC. Additionally, the ROC curves and DCA of the nomogram showed better survival prediction abilities in CRC than the other models. The stratification curves of the different risk groups of the different TNM categories were significantly different.
Conclusion: The novel nomogram showed good short- and long-term outcomes of OS in patients with CRC. This model provides a personalized and convenient prognostic prediction tool for clinical applications.
Keywords: Colorectal cancer; Nomogram; Nutrition; Overall survival; TNM stage.
© 2022. The Author(s).