PREDICT-juvenile-stroke: PRospective evaluation of a prediction score determining individual clinical outcome three months after ischemic stroke in young adults - a study protocol

Abstract

Background: Although of high individual and socioeconomic relevance, a reliable prediction model for the prognosis of juvenile stroke (18-55 years) is missing. Therefore, the study presented in this protocol aims to prospectively validate the discriminatory power of a prediction score for the 3 months functional outcome after juvenile stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) that has been derived from an independent retrospective study using standard clinical workup data.

Methods: PREDICT-Juvenile-Stroke is a multi-centre (n = 4) prospective observational cohort study collecting standard clinical workup data and data on treatment success at 3 months after acute ischemic stroke or TIA that aims to validate a new prediction score for juvenile stroke. The prediction score has been developed upon single center retrospective analysis of 340 juvenile stroke patients. The score determines the patient's individual probability for treatment success defined by a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-2 or return to pre-stroke baseline mRS 3 months after stroke or TIA. This probability will be compared to the observed clinical outcome at 3 months using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The primary endpoint is to validate the clinical potential of the new prediction score for a favourable outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke or TIA. Secondary outcomes are to determine to what extent predictive factors in juvenile stroke or TIA patients differ from those in older patients and to determine the predictive accuracy of the juvenile stroke prediction score on other clinical and paraclinical endpoints. A minimum of 430 juvenile patients (< 55 years) with acute ischemic stroke or TIA, and the same number of older patients will be enrolled for the prospective validation study.

Discussion: The juvenile stroke prediction score has the potential to enable personalisation of counselling, provision of appropriate information regarding the prognosis and identification of patients who benefit from specific treatments.

Trial registration: The study has been registered at https://drks.de on March 31, 2022 ( DRKS00024407 ).

Keywords: Juvenile stroke; Prediction score; Three months outcome; Validation.