Investigating the association among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in Uzbekistan: an ARDL approach

Abstract

This paper examines for the first time the relationship between CO2 emissions and the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy in Uzbekistan, spanning the period 1985-2020. The analysis uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run dynamic multipliers and short-run elasticity coefficients of energy consumption variables. Economic factors, such as GDP, are excluded in the analysis as they may cause multicollinearity problems. The empirical results document that in the short- and long-run, hydropower (renewable) energy consumption negatively impacts CO2 emissions per capita, showing a unidirectional causal effect. As regards with non-renewable energy consumption, natural gas and oil energy consumption have a positive impact on CO2 emissions per capita both in the short and long run. Coal consumption positively impacts CO2 emissions in the short run, while it is negative in the long run. Policy measures to enhance the collection of energy from additional renewable energy sources, in particular hydropower, should be taken into account in order to increase the share of renewable energy, and thus, to compensate non-renewable energy consumption which is the main contributor to CO2 emissions. Moreover, solar and wind energy should be explicitly taken into consideration as an additional renewable energy source, which has the lack of attention by policymakers. Furthermore, policy actions, such as the involvement of the private sector into renewable energy projects and the implementation of effective carbon tax policies, could be further options to reduce CO2 emissions.

Keywords: ARDL model; Bound test; CO2 emissions; Coal; Gas; Hydropower; Oil; Uzbekistan.