Future air quality and premature mortality in Korea

Yujin J Oak; Rokjin J Park; Jong-Tae Lee; Garam Byun

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161134

Future air quality and premature mortality in Korea

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Mar 20:865:161134. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161134. Epub 2022 Dec 29.

Authors

Yujin J Oak¹, Rokjin J Park², Jong-Tae Lee³, Garam Byun⁴

Affiliations

¹ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
² School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. Electronic address: rjpark@snu.ac.kr.
³ School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Science, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea; Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea.
⁴ Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea.

PMID: 36587681
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161134

Abstract

We simulate air quality in Korea for the present, the near-term, and the long-term future conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1: most sustainable pathway with strong emissions control, SSP3: most challenging pathway with mild emissions control) using a chemical transport model. Simulated future concentrations of NO₂, SO₂, and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), show, in general, lower values compared to the present with varying degrees depending on SSP scenarios. Significant reductions in precursor emissions result in a decrease in O₃ concentrations under a NO_x-limited environment in the long-term future under SSP1. Under SSP3, O₃ increases in the future under a VOC-limited regime, driven by increased CH₄ levels and biogenic VOC emissions under the warming climate. Concentrations of PM_2.5 and its components, including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and organic aerosols (OA), generally decrease in the long-term future under both scenarios. However, the contribution of biogenic secondary OA (BSOA) to PM_2.5 will increase in the future. Simulated results are used to estimate cardiorespiratory mortality changes with concentration-response factors from epidemiologic studies in Korea based on national health surveys and Korean cohorts, using projected population structures from the SSP database. The cardiorespiratory health burden of long-term exposure to O₃, NO₂, SO₂, and PM_2.5 is estimated to be 10,419 (95 % confidence interval: 1271-17,142), 8630 (0-18,713), 3958 (0-9272), and 10,431 (1411-20,643) deaths in 2019. We find that the total cardiorespiratory excess mortality due to air pollutants under SSP1 decreases by 8 % and 95 % in 2045 and 2095, respectively. Under SSP3, excess mortality increases by 80 % in 2045, and decreases by 22 % in 2095, resulting in a substantial difference in the health outcomes depending on the emission scenario. We also find that the BSOA contribution to total PM_2.5 will differ by region, emphasizing the potential health impact of BSOA on a local scale in the future.

Keywords: Air pollution; Chemical transport model; Premature mortality; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollution*
Mortality, Premature
Nitrogen Dioxide
Particulate Matter / analysis
Republic of Korea / epidemiology
Volatile Organic Compounds* / analysis

Substances

Volatile Organic Compounds
Nitrogen Dioxide
Air Pollutants
Particulate Matter