Rapid global spread of variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2

Daihai He; Benjamin J Cowling; Sheikh Taslim Ali; Lewi Stone

doi:10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.12.005

Rapid global spread of variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2

IJID Reg. 2023 Jun:7:63-65. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.12.005. Epub 2022 Dec 20.

Authors

Daihai He^{1

2}, Benjamin J Cowling^{3

4}, Sheikh Taslim Ali^{3

4}, Lewi Stone^{5

6}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.
² Research Institute for Future Food, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
³ School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
⁴ Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong, China.
⁵ Mathematical Sciences, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
⁶ Biomathematics Unit, School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.

Abstract

Objectives: Variants of concern (VOCs) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), such as the Delta variant and the Omicron variant, have reached all countries/regions of the world and have had a tremendous impact. This study analyses the global spread of VOCs of SARS-CoV-2.

Methods: Biweekly aggregated numbers of several VOCs were retrieved for 58 locations. The time interval for the proportion of VOC samples to exceed 60% (indicating dominance) among all samples sequenced in each location was calculated. The times taken for a VOC to become dominant in 12 (or 36) locations was defined in order to quantify the speed of spread.

Results: It took 63, 56 and 28 days for the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants to become dominant in 12 locations, respectively, and 133, 70 and 28 days for the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants to become dominant in 36 locations.

Conclusions: The Omicron variant has much higher transmission potential compared with the Delta variant, and the Delta variant has higher transmission potential compared with the pre-Delta VOCs.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Spread; Variant.