Estimating the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown on UK food retailers and the restaurant sector

Luca A Panzone; Shaun Larcom; Po-Wen She

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100495

Estimating the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown on UK food retailers and the restaurant sector

Glob Food Sec. 2021 Mar:28:100495. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100495. Epub 2021 Jan 21.

Authors

Luca A Panzone¹, Shaun Larcom², Po-Wen She^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ School of Natural and Environmental Science, Newcastle University, UK.
² Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UK.
³ Department of Finance, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Taiwan.

Abstract

Using an approach normally used to estimate cumulative excess deaths, we measure the impact of the COVID-19 shock on sales of UK food retailers and restaurants. To control the spread of COVID-19, travel and social interactions were restricted, putting significant pressure on retailers, who had to adapt whilst complying with a fast-changing marketplace. Results show that in the period March-August 2020, COVID-19 restrictions accounted for a £4 billion increase in sales for food retailers, and £4 billion in non-store retailers; and a £20 billion loss in sales in non-food stores, and £25 billion loss in turnover for food and beverage serving services.

Keywords: COVID-19; Food retailing; Seasonal ARIMA; Shocks.