Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Gift Nxumalo; Bashar Bashir; Karam Alsafadi; Hussein Bachir; Endre Harsányi; Sana Arshad; Safwan Mohammed

doi:10.3390/ijerph192416469

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 8;19(24):16469. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416469.

Authors

Gift Nxumalo¹, Bashar Bashir², Karam Alsafadi³, Hussein Bachir⁴, Endre Harsányi^{5

6}, Sana Arshad⁷, Safwan Mohammed^{5

6}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Water and Environmental Management, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary.
² Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia.
³ School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
⁴ Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany.
⁵ Institutes for Agricultural Research and Educational Farm, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary.
⁶ Institute of Land Use, Technical and Precision Technology, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary.
⁷ Department of Geography, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur 63100, Pakistan.

Abstract

Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002-2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002-2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr-Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

Keywords: South Africa; climate change; crop yield; food security; land; meteorological drought; water.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Agriculture / methods
Climate Change
Droughts*
South Africa
Triticum*
Weather

Grants and funding

Project no. TKP2021-NKTA-32 was implemented with support provided by the National Research, Development, and Innovation Fund of Hungary, financed under the TKP2021-NKTA funding scheme. This research was supported by the RESEARCHERS SUPPORTING PROJECT, grant number RSP-2021/296, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.