As one of the most sensitive regions to global climate change, Tibet is subject to remarkable changes in biota over the past decades, including endemic fish species. However, no study has attempted to predict the changes in the distribution of Tibetan fishes, leaving a great blank for aquatic conservation in Tibet. Based on the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt), this study predicted the changes in the suitable habitats of three endemic fish species, including two species mainly inhabiting the rivers (Glyptosternon maculatum, Oxygymnocypris stewartii) and one species mainly inhabiting lakes (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) in Tibet under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) under two future scenarios (2050 and 2090), and explored the impact of the barrier effects of hydropower projects on the suitable habitats of fish. The results showed that under the four scenarios, the net change in the suitable habitats of the G. maculatum was negative (-2.0--18.8%), while the suitable habitats of the O. stewartii and G. selincuoensis would be expanded, with the net change of 60.0-238.3% and 46.4-56.9%, respectively. Under different scenarios, the suitable habitats of the three species had a tendency to migrate to a higher elevation, and the largest expansion in the range of migration was projected to occur under the 2090-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, due to the impact of the hydropower projects, the ability of G. maculatum to obtain new suitable habitats from climate change would be reduced by 2.0-8.1%, which was less than the loss induced by climate change (5.5-25.1%), while the suitable habitats of O. stewartii would be reduced by 3.0-9.7%, which was more than the impact of climate change (about 1%). The results of this study have guiding significance for the conservation and management of fish resources diversity in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and Siling Co basin of Tibet, and also provide a reference for the coordination and scientific planning of hydropower projects in Tibet.
Keywords: Tibet; climate change; endemic fish; hydropower projects; species distribution model; suitable habitats.