Drug overdoses, geographic trajectories, and the influence of built environment and neighborhood characteristics

Abstract

Much research has analyzed the spatial patterns of drug overdose events and identified features of the environment associated with heightened overdose levels. Generally absent from the literature are studies that analyze how unique trajectories of overdoses vary over time. We address this gap in the literature through an analysis of drug overdoses occurring in Passaic County, New Jersey from 2015 through 2019. A group-based trajectory analysis classifies block groups according to their overdose trends. A mixed-effects panel negative binomial regression model then examines the built environment and neighborhood characteristics associated with overall overdose levels. Results indicate that Passaic County block groups can be classified across three groups based upon their overdose levels over the study period: low and stable, low with moderate increase, and elevated and increasing. While the largest effects were observed for concentrated disadvantage in the regression analysis, most variables positively associated with overdose levels were built environment measures.

Keywords: Drug overdose; Geographic information systems (GIS); Group-based trajectory; Panel regression.