Ecological niche models reveal divergent habitat use of Pallas's cat in the Eurasian cold steppes

Abstract

Identifying the association between the patterns of niche occupation and phylogenetic relationships among sister clades and assisting conservation planning implications are of the most important applications of species distribution models (SDMs). However, most studies have been carried out regardless of within taxon genetic differentiation and the potential of local adaptation occurring within the species level. The Pallas's cat (Otocolobus manul) is a less-studied species with unknown biogeography and phylogenetic structure across a widespread yet isolated range from the Caucasus to eastern China. In the current study, by considering a previously proposed genetic structure and based on a cluster analysis on climatic variables, we supposed three clades for this species, including O. m. manul, O. m. ferrugineus, and O. m. nigripectus. We developed SDM for each clade separately and compared it with a general distribution model of the species to determine whether the hypothesized taxonomic resolution affects the predicted ecological niche of the within-species structures. We assessed the effect of climate change on the future distribution of the species to detect the most sensitive clades to global warming scenarios. Our results showed that for all clades' models, the AUC and TSS were greater than the general model. Access to the preferred prey of the Pallas's cat, that is, pika, had a significant effect on the distribution of O. m. manul and O. m. ferrugineus, whereas the most influential variable affecting O. m. nigripectus habitat suitability was terrain slope. Based on our future projections, we found that future climate change likely threatens the clades O. m. ferrugineus and O. m. nigripectus more than O. m. manul, findings that were hidden in the general model. Our results highlight the proficiency of SDMs in recognizing within-taxon habitat use of widespread species and the necessity of this procedure for implementing effective conservation planning of these species.

Keywords: clades; climate change; conservation planning; habitat suitability.