Trajectories of psychological distress over multiple COVID-19 lockdowns in Australia

Ferdi Botha; Richard W Morris; Peter Butterworth; Nick Glozier

doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101315

Trajectories of psychological distress over multiple COVID-19 lockdowns in Australia

SSM Popul Health. 2023 Mar:21:101315. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101315. Epub 2022 Dec 12.

Authors

Ferdi Botha¹, Richard W Morris², Peter Butterworth³, Nick Glozier⁴

Affiliations

¹ Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, & ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families Over the Life Course, Australia.
² Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, & School of Psychology, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, & ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families Over the Life Course, Australia.
³ Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, & National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia.
⁴ Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, & ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families Over the Life Course, Australia.

Abstract

The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, including the indirect effect of policy responses, on psychological distress has been the subject of much research. However, there has been little consideration of how the prevalence of psychological distress changed with the duration and repetition of lockdowns, or the rate of resolution of psychological distress once lockdowns ended. This study describes the trajectories of psychological distress over multiple lockdowns during the first two years of the pandemic across five Australian states for the period May 2020 to December 2021 and examines whether psychological distress trajectories varied as a function of time spent in lockdown, or time since lockdown ended. A total of N = 574,306 Australian adults completed Facebook surveys over 611 days (on average 940 participants per day). Trajectories of psychological distress (depression and anxiety) were regressed on lockdown duration and time since lockdown ended. Random effects reflecting the duration of each lockdown were included to account for varying effects on psychological distress associated with lockdown length. The prevalence of psychological distress was higher during periods of lockdown, more so for longer lockdowns relative to shorter lockdowns. Psychological distress increased rapidly over the first ten weeks of lockdowns spanning at least twelve weeks, though less rapidly for short lockdowns of three weeks or less. Psychological distress levels tended to stabilise, or even decrease, after ten consecutive weeks of lockdown. After lockdown restrictions were lifted, psychological distress rapidly subsided but did not return to pre-lockdown levels within four weeks, although continued to decline afterwards. In Australia short lockdowns of pre-announced durations were associated with slower rises in psychological distress. Lockdowns may have left some temporary residual population effect, but we cannot discern whether this reflects longer term trends in increasing psychological distress. However, the findings do re-emphasise the resilience of individuals to major life stressors.

Keywords: Anxiety; Australia; COVID-19; Depression; Mental health; Trajectories.