Interpretable deep learning model to predict the molecular classification of endometrial cancer from haematoxylin and eosin-stained whole-slide images: a combined analysis of the PORTEC randomised trials and clinical cohorts

Abstract

Background: Endometrial cancer can be molecularly classified into POLE^mut, mismatch repair deficient (MMRd), p53 abnormal (p53abn), and no specific molecular profile (NSMP) subgroups. We aimed to develop an interpretable deep learning pipeline for whole-slide-image-based prediction of the four molecular classes in endometrial cancer (im4MEC), to identify morpho-molecular correlates, and to refine prognostication.

Methods: This combined analysis included diagnostic haematoxylin and eosin-stained slides and molecular and clinicopathological data from 2028 patients with intermediate-to-high-risk endometrial cancer from the PORTEC-1 (n=466), PORTEC-2 (n=375), and PORTEC-3 (n=393) randomised trials and the TransPORTEC pilot study (n=110), the Medisch Spectrum Twente cohort (n=242), a case series of patients with POLE^mut endometrial cancer in the Leiden Endometrial Cancer Repository (n=47), and The Cancer Genome Atlas-Uterine Corpus Endometrial Carcinoma cohort (n=395). PORTEC-3 was held out as an independent test set and a four-fold cross validation was performed. Performance was measured with the macro and class-wise area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Whole-slide images were segmented into tiles of 360 μm resized to 224 × 224 pixels. im4MEC was trained to learn tile-level morphological features with self-supervised learning and to molecularly classify whole-slide images with an attention mechanism. The top 20 tiles with the highest attention scores were reviewed to identify morpho-molecular correlates. Predictions of a nuclear classification deep learning model serve to derive interpretable morphological features. We analysed 5-year recurrence-free survival and explored prognostic refinement by molecular class using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Findings: im4MEC attained macro-average AUROCs of 0·874 (95% CI 0·856-0·893) on four-fold cross-validation and 0·876 on the independent test set. The class-wise AUROCs were 0·849 for POLE^mut (n=51), 0·844 for MMRd (n=134), 0·883 for NSMP (n=120), and 0·928 for p53abn (n=88). POLE^mut and MMRd tiles had a high density of lymphocytes, p53abn tiles had strong nuclear atypia, and the morphology of POLE^mut and MMRd endometrial cancer overlapped. im4MEC highlighted a low tumour-to-stroma ratio as a potentially novel characteristic feature of the NSMP class. 5-year recurrence-free survival was significantly different between im4MEC predicted molecular classes in PORTEC-3 (log-rank p<0·0001). The ten patients with aggressive p53abn endometrial cancer that was predicted as MMRd showed inflammatory morphology and appeared to have a better prognosis than patients with correctly predicted p53abn endometrial cancer (p=0·30). The four patients with NSMP endometrial cancer that was predicted as p53abn showed higher nuclear atypia and appeared to have a worse prognosis than patients with correctly predicted NSMP (p=0·13). Patients with MMRd endometrial cancer predicted as POLE^mut had an excellent prognosis, as do those with true POLE^mut endometrial cancer.

Interpretation: We present the first interpretable deep learning model, im4MEC, for haematoxylin and eosin-based prediction of molecular endometrial cancer classification. im4MEC robustly identified morpho-molecular correlates and could enable further prognostic refinement of patients with endometrial cancer.

Funding: The Hanarth Foundation, the Promedica Foundation, and the Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology.