A deep belief network-based clinical decision system for patients with osteosarcoma

Abstract

Osteosarcoma was the most frequent type of malignant primary bone tumor with a poor survival rate mainly occurring in children and adolescents. For precision treatment, an accurate individualized prognosis for Osteosarcoma patients is highly desired. In recent years, many machine learning-based approaches have been used to predict distant metastasis and overall survival based on available individual information. In this study, we compared the performance of the deep belief networks (DBN) algorithm with six other machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, XGBoost, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting Machine, Logistic Regression, and Naive Bayes Classifier, to predict lung metastasis for Osteosarcoma patients. Therefore the DBN-based lung metastasis prediction model was integrated as a parameter into the Cox proportional hazards model to predict the overall survival of Osteosarcoma patients. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score of the DBN algorithm were 0.917/0.888, 0.896/0.643, 0.956/0.900, and 0.925/0.750 in the training/validation sets, respectively, which were better than the other six machine-learning algorithms. For the performance of the DBN survival Cox model, the areas under the curve (AUCs) for the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival in the training set were 0.851, 0.806 and 0.793, respectively, indicating good discrimination, and the calibration curves showed good agreement between the prediction and actual observations. The DBN survival Cox model also demonstrated promising performance in the validation set. In addition, a nomogram integrating the DBN output was designed as a tool to aid clinical decision-making.

Keywords: Osteosarcoma; clinical decision; deep belief networks; lung metastasis; prognosis.