Threshold condition and non pharmaceutical interventions's control strategies for elimination of COVID-19

Muhammad Zamir; Fawad Nadeem; Thabet Abdeljawad; Zakia Hammouch

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103698

Threshold condition and non pharmaceutical interventions's control strategies for elimination of COVID-19

Results Phys. 2021 Jan:20:103698. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103698. Epub 2020 Dec 11.

Authors

Muhammad Zamir¹, Fawad Nadeem¹, Thabet Abdeljawad^{2

3}, Zakia Hammouch⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, University of Science and Technology Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
² Department of Mathematics and General Sciences, Prince Sultan University Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
³ Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan.
⁴ Division of Applied Mathematics, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, Viet Nam.

Abstract

In this work we focus on the eradication of the COVID-19 infection with the help of almost Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs), using mathematical modelling. First the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ is investigated. Then, on the basis of sensitivity test of $R_{0}$ , the most active/sensitive parameters are presented in detail. Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) are applied to control the sensitive parameters. The major NPIs are, stay home (isolation), sanitizers (wash hands), Treatment of side effects of infection, like throat infection etc and face mask. These NPIs helps in mitigation and reducing the size of outbreak of the disease. Threshold condition for global stability of the disease free state is investigated.The NPI's are used in different ratios to formulate a strategy. The results of these strategies are validated using Matlab software.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Global stability; Mathematical model; Novel coronavirus; Sensitivity analysis; Threshold condition.