Maternal carrier screening with single-gene NIPS provides accurate fetal risk assessments for recessive conditions

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance of carrier screening for cystic fibrosis, hemoglobinopathies, and spinal muscular atrophy with reflex single-gene noninvasive prenatal screening (sgNIPS), which does not require paternal carrier screening.

Methods: An unselected sample of 9151 pregnant individuals from the general US pregnant population was screened for carrier status, of which 1669 (18.2%) were identified as heterozygous for one or more pathogenic variants and reflexed to sgNIPS. sgNIPS results were compared with newborn outcomes obtained from parent survey responses or provider reports for a cohort of 201 pregnancies.

Results: Overall, 98.7% of pregnant individuals received an informative result (no-call rate = 1.3%), either a negative carrier report or, if identified as heterozygous for a pathogenic variant, a reflex sgNIPS report. In the outcomes cohort, the negative predictive value of sgNIPS was 99.4% (95% CI = 96.0%-99.9%) and average positive predictive value (PPV) of sgNIPS was 48.3% (95% CI = 36.1%-60.1%). Importantly, personalized PPVs accurately reflected the percentage of affected pregnancies in each PPV range, and all pregnancies with a sgNIPS fetal risk of >9 in 10 (90% PPV) were affected.

Conclusion: Although traditional carrier screening is most effective when used to assess reproductive risk before pregnancy, more than 95% of the time it is pursued during a pregnancy and is complicated by incomplete uptake of paternal carrier screening (<50%) and misattributed paternity (∼10%). Even in an idealized setting, when both partners have carrier screening, the maximum risk for having an affected pregnancy is 1 in 4 (equivalent of a 25% PPV). Carrier screening with sgNIPS during pregnancy is an alternative that does not require a paternal sample and provides accurate fetal risk in a timely manner that can be used for prenatal counseling and pregnancy management.

Keywords: Carrier screening; Personalized fetal disease risk; Single-gene NIPS; Single-gene recessive disorders; sgNIPS.