Study of the Deep Processes of COVID-19 in Russia: Finding Ways to Identify Preventive Measures

Alexander P Anyutin; Tatiana M Khodykina; Ekaterina I Akimova; Elena V Belova; Ekaterina A Shashina; Denis V Shcherbakov; Valentina V Makarova; Nadezhda N Zabroda; Anna A Klimova; Nina A Ermakova; Tatiana S Isiutina-Fedotkova; Yury V Zhernov; Roman V Polibin; Oleg V Mitrokhin

doi:10.3390/ijerph192214714

Study of the Deep Processes of COVID-19 in Russia: Finding Ways to Identify Preventive Measures

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Nov 9;19(22):14714. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192214714.

Authors

Alexander P Anyutin¹, Tatiana M Khodykina², Ekaterina I Akimova², Elena V Belova², Ekaterina A Shashina², Denis V Shcherbakov², Valentina V Makarova², Nadezhda N Zabroda², Anna A Klimova², Nina A Ermakova², Tatiana S Isiutina-Fedotkova², Yury V Zhernov^{2

3

4}, Roman V Polibin⁵, Oleg V Mitrokhin²

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Fryazino Branch, 141190 Fryazino, Russia.
² Department of General Hygiene, F. Erismann Institute of Public Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119435 Moscow, Russia.
³ Department of Chemistry, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia.
⁴ Center for Medical Anthropology, N.N. Miklukho-Maclay Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017 Moscow, Russia.
⁵ Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119991 Moscow, Russia.

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a huge impact on all areas of human life. Since the risk of biological threats will persist in the future, it is very important to ensure mobilization readiness for a prompt response to the possible emergence of epidemics of infectious diseases. Therefore, from both a theoretical and practical standpoint, it is currently necessary to conduct a thorough examination of the COVID-19 epidemic. The goal of this research is to investigate the underlying processes that led to the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and to identify ways to improve preventive measures and ensure mobilization readiness for a quick response to potential COVID-19-like pandemics. This research will analyze the daily dynamics of the number of infection cases and the number of new lethal cases of COVID-19. We analyzed the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 infection N(d), the daily number of new lethal cases L(d), their percentage ratio L(d)/N(d) 100% in Russia for 2 years of the pandemic (from the beginning of the pandemic to 23 March 2022), the rate of increase and decrease of these indicators (dN(d)/dd and dL(d)/dd), as well as their spectra created on the basis of wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis of the deep structure of the N(d) and L(d) wavelet spectra made it possible to identify the presence of internal cycles, the study of which makes it possible to predict the presence of days with the maximum number of infections and new deaths in a pandemic similar to COVID-19 and outline ways and methods for improving preventive measures and measures to ensure mobilization readiness for a rapid response to the potential emergence of pandemics similar to COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemic; mobilization readiness; new coronavirus infection; pandemic; preventive measures; rapid response; wavelet analysis.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
COVID-19* / prevention & control
Humans
Pandemics / prevention & control
Russia / epidemiology
Wavelet Analysis

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant no. 21-73-20202 for advice on COVID-19 preventing, and grant no. 22-75-10140 for analysis of the deep processes of COVID-19 in Russia).