Air pollution remains the most serious environmental health issue in the United Kingdom while also carrying non-trivial economic costs. The COVID-19 lockdown periods reduced anthropogenic emissions and offered unique conditions for air pollution research. This study sources fine-granularity geo-spatial air quality and meteorological data for the capital cities of two UK countries (i.e. England's capital London and Scotland's capital Edinburgh) from the UK Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) spanning 2016-2022 to assess long-term trends in several criteria pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) and the changes in ozone pollution during the pandemic period. Unlike other studies conducted thus far, this research integrates several tools in trend estimation, including the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen estimator with bootstrap resampling, and the generalized additive model (GAM). Moreover, several investigations, including cluster trajectory analysis, pollution rose plots, and potential source contribution function (PSCF), are also employed to identify potential origin sources for air masses carrying precursors and estimate their contributions to ozone concentrations at receptor sites and downwind areas. The main findings reveal that most of the criteria pollutants show a decreasing trend in both geographies over the seven-year period, except for O3, which presents a significant ascending trend in London and a milder ascending trend in Edinburgh. However, O3 concentrations have significantly decreased during the year 2020 in both urban areas, despite registering sharp increases during the first lockdown period. In turn, these findings indicate on one hand that the O3 generation process is in the VOC-limited regime in both UK urban areas and, on the other hand, confirm previous findings that, when stretching the analysis period, diminishing ozone levels can lead to NOx reduction even in VOC-controlled geographies. Trajectory analysis reveals that northern Europe, particularly Norway and Sweden, is a principal ozone pollution source for Edinburgh, whereas, for London, mainland Europe (i.e., the Benelux countries) is another significant source. The results have important policy implications, revealing that effective and efficient NOx abatement measures spur ozone pollution in the short-term, but the increase can be transient. Moreover, policymakers in London and Edinburgh should consider that both local and transboundary sources contribute to local ozone pollution.
Keywords: Air pollutants; COVID-19 lockdown impact; Edinburgh; Generalized additive model; London; Mann-Kendall test; Ozone pollution; Theil-Sen estimator; Trajectory analysis; Trend estimation.
© 2022 The Author(s).