Climate change and plant pathogens

Abstract

Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO₂ will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.