Stroke risk prediction based on electronic health records is currently an important research topic. Previous research activities have generally used single-time physiological data to build static models and have focused on algorithms to improve prediction accuracy. Few studies have considered historical measurements from a data perspective to construct dynamic models. Since it is a chronic disease, the risk of having a stroke increases and the corresponding risk factors become abnormal when healthy people are diagnosed with a stroke. Therefore, in this paper, we applied longitudinal data, with the backward joint model, to the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study's dataset to monitor changes in individuals' health status precisely on time and to increase the prediction accuracy of the model. The three-year prediction accuracy of our model, considering three measurements of longitudinal parameters, is 0.926. This is higher than the traditional Cox proportional hazard model, which has a 0.833 prediction accuracy. The results obtained in this study verified that longitudinal data improves stroke risk prediction accuracy and is promising for dynamic stroke risk prediction and prevention. Our model also verified that the frequency of fruit consumption, erythrocyte hematocrit, and glucose are potential stroke-related factors.
Keywords: backward joint model; longitudinal data; prediction; prevention; stroke.