Background: Several biomarkers have been correlated with the prevalence and severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, the association between biomarkers and rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of biomarkers to determine who is likely to develop RKFD in a healthy population.
Methods: A community-based cohort of 2608 people residing in northern Taiwan were enrolled, and their renal function was followed annually from January 2014 to December 2019. The outcomes of interest were RKFD, defined as a 15% decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) within the first 4 years, and a decrease in eGFR without improvement in the fifth year. Clinical variables and potential predictors of RKFD, namely adiponectin, leptin, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and cystatin C, were measured and analyzed.
Results: The incidence of RKFD was 17.0% (105/619). After matching for age and sex at a 1:1 ratio, a total of 200 subjects were included for analysis. The levels of cystatin C and total vitamin D were significantly negatively correlated with eGFR. eGFR was negatively correlated with the levels of cystatin C and total vitamin D. Among the biomarkers, cystatin C showed the best predictive performance for RKFD (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.789). Lower serum cystatin C was associated with a higher rate of RKFD in healthy subjects. A generalized additive model showed that 0.82 mg/L was an adequate cut-off value of cystatin C to predict RKFD. Multivariable logistic regression analysis further indicated that low cystatin C and eGFR were independent predictors of the possibility of RKFD.
Conclusions: Serum cystatin C level could predict the possibility of RKFD. We suggest that a low cystatin C level should be considered as a risk factor for RKFD in healthy subjects.
Keywords: biomarker; chronic kidney disease; cystatin C; rapid kidney function decline.