An individual patient meta-analysis followed 1216 patients with PSA-only recurrence (biochemical recurrence, BCR) restaged with [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT before the salvage treatment for median 3.5 years and analyzed the overall survival (OS). A new risk model included a good risk group with a prescan PSA < 0.5 ng/mL (26%), an intermediate risk group with a prescan PSA > 0.5 ng/mL and a PSMA PET/CT with 1 to 5 positive sites (65%), and a poor risk group with a prescan PSA > 0.5 ng/mL and a PSA PET/CT with > 5 positive sites (9%) (p < 0.0001, log rank test). The poor risk group had a five-year OS > 60%. Adding a BCR risk score by the European Association of Urology did not significantly improve the prediction of OS (p = 0.64). In conclusion, the restaging PSMA PET/CT markedly predicted the 5-year OS. The new risk model for patients with PSA-only relapse requires a restaging PSMA PET/CT for patients with a prescan PSA > 0.5 ng/mL and has a potential use in new trials aiming to improve the outcome for patients with PSA-only recurrence who have polysites prostate cancer detected on PSMA PET/CT.
Keywords: biochemical recurrence; new generation imaging; overall survival; prognostic factors; prostate cancer; restaging; risk models.