Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021

Abstract

Background: Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest.

Methods: We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications.

Results: We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown.

Conclusions: We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period.

Keywords: COVID-19; Nordic countries; excess mortality; register-based modelling; review.