Intrinsic aqueous solubility is a foundational property for understanding the chemical, technological, pharmaceutical, and environmental behavior of drug substances. Despite years of solubility research, molecular structure-based prediction of the intrinsic aqueous solubility of drug substances is still under active investigation. This paper describes the authors' systematic data-driven modelling in which two fit-for-purpose training data sets for intrinsic aqueous solubility were collected and curated, and three quantitative structure-property relationships were derived to make predictions for the most recent solubility challenge. All three models perform well individually, while being mechanistically transparent and easy to understand. Molecular descriptors involved in the models are related to the following key steps in the solubility process: dissociation of the molecule from the crystal, formation of a cavity in the solvent, and insertion of the molecule into the solvent. A consensus modeling approach with these models remarkably improved prediction capability and reduced the number of strong outliers by more than two times. The performance and outliers of the second solubility challenge predictions were analyzed retrospectively. All developed models have been published in the QsarDB.org repository according to FAIR principles and can be used without restrictions for exploring, downloading, and making predictions.
Keywords: QSAR; QSPR; consensus model; drug substances; fit-for-purpose training set; multiple linear regression; solubility.