An in-depth study of the influence mechanism of oasis land surface temperature (LST) in arid regions is essential to promote the stable development of the ecological environment in dry areas. Based on MODIS, MYD11A2 long time series data from 2003 to 2020, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, the Sen slope, combined with the Hurst index, were used to analyze and predict the trend of LST changes in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. This paper selected nine influencing factors of the slope, aspect, air temperature, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation (P), nighttime light index (NTL), patch density (PD), mean patch area (AREA_MN), and aggregation index (AI) to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of LST from global and local perspectives using the geodetector (GD) model and multi-scale geo-weighted regression (MGWR) model. The results showed that the average LSTs of the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were 31.53 °C, 47.29 °C, 22.38 °C, and -5.20 °C in the four seasons from 2003 to 2020, respectively. Except for autumn, the LST of all seasons showed an increasing trend, bare soil and grass land had a warming effect, and agricultural land had a cooling effect. The results of factor detection showed that air temperature, P, and NDVI were the dominant factors affecting the spatial variation of LST. The interaction detection results showed that the interaction between air temperature and NDVI was the most significant, and the two-factor interaction was more effective than the single-factor effect on LST. The MGWR model results showed that the effects of PD on LST were positively correlated, and the impact of AREA_MN and AI on LST were negatively correlated, indicating that the dense landscape of patches has a cooling effect on LST. Overall, this study provides information for managers to carry out more targeted ecological stability regulations in arid zone oases and facilitates the development of regulatory measures to maintain the cold island effect and improve the environment.
Keywords: GD; MGWR; arid zone urban agglomeration; land surface temperature; landscape pattern; trend change analysis.