Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

Julius Schlumberger; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Jeroen Aerts; Marleen de Ruiter

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.105219

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

iScience. 2022 Sep 30;25(10):105219. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105219. eCollection 2022 Oct 21.

Authors

Julius Schlumberger^{1

2}, Marjolijn Haasnoot¹, Jeroen Aerts^{1

2}, Marleen de Ruiter²

Affiliations

¹ Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 Delft, the Netherlands.
² Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Abstract

Climate change impacts are increasingly complex owing to compounding, interacting, and cascading risks across sectors. However, approaches to support Disaster Risk Management (DRM) addressing the underlying (uncertain) risk driver interactions are still lacking. We tailor the approach of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) to DAPP-MR to design DRM pathways for complex, dynamic multi-risk in multi-sector systems. We review the recent multi-hazard and multi-sector research to identify relevant aspects of multi-risk management frameworks and illustrate the suitability of DAPP-MR using a stylized case. It is found that rearranging the analytical steps of DAPP by introducing three iteration stages can help to capture interactions, trade-offs, and synergies across hazards and sectors. We show that DAPP-MR may guide multi-sector processes to stepwise integrate knowledge toward multi-risk management. DAPP-MR can be seen as an analytical basis and first step toward an operational, integrative, and interactive framework for short-to long-term multi-risk DRM.

Keywords: Climatology; Earth sciences; Environmental event.