An ecotoxicological risk model for the microplastics in arctic waters

Abstract

The risk posed to Arctic marine life by microplastics, a Contaminants of Emerging Arctic Concern (CEAC), is poorly known. The reason is the limited understanding of the dose-response relationship due to the region's peculiar environmental and geophysical properties and the unique physiological properties of the species living there. The properties of microplastics in the region and their distribution across the oceanic profile further complicate the problem. This paper addresses the knowledge gap by proposing a novel comprehensive ecotoxicity model. The model uses oxidative stress caused by the Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) to assess cell mortality. Cell mortality has been used as an indicator of ecological risk. The model is implemented in the Bayesian Network (BN) framework to evaluate the cytotoxicity, measured as the probability of causing mortality. The work enhances the understanding and assessment of the cytotoxicity of microplastics in polar cod and associated risks.

Keywords: Arctic risk; Bayesian network; Ecological risk analysis; Microplastic pollution; Object-oriented bayesian network.