Parental selection is at the beginning and contributes significantly to the success of any breeding work. The value of a cross is reflected in the potential of its progeny population. Breeders invest substantial resources in evaluating progeny to select the best performing genotypes as candidates for variety development. Several proposals have been made to use genomics to support parental selection. These have mostly been evaluated using theoretical considerations or simulation studies. However, evaluations using experimental data have rarely been conducted. In this study, we tested the potential of genomic prediction for predicting the progeny mean, variance, and usefulness criterion using data from an applied breeding population for winter barley. For three traits with genetic architectures at varying levels of complexity, ear emergence, plant height, and grain yield, progeny mean, variance, and usefulness criterion were predicted and validated in scenarios resembling situations in which the described tools shall be used in plant breeding. While the population mean could be predicted with moderate to high prediction abilities amounting to 0.64, 0.21, and 0.39 in ear emergence, plant height, and grain yield, respectively, the prediction of family variance appeared difficult, as reflected in low prediction abilities of 0.41, 0.11, and 0.14, for ear emergence, plant height, and grain yield, respectively. We have shown that identifying superior crosses remains a challenging task and suggest that the success of predicting the usefulness criterion depends strongly on the complexity of the underlying trait.
Keywords: long-term genomic selection; superior progeny; usefulness criterion; variance prediction.