The low-carbon green transformation and the earlier peak in coal consumption and carbon emissions of the steel industry will make important contributions to the overall carbon peaking goal and high-quality economic development in China. Based on the carbon emission-energy integration model, we conducted a scenario study on the path of coal control and carbon reduction under the "carbon peak and neutralization" target of the steel industry. The results showed that the steel industry is likely to achieve a carbon peak in the early stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a peak value of 1.64-1.67 billion tons (including process and indirect emissions), and coal will also peak together as the main form of energy consumption, with a peak value of 460-470 million tons of standard coal (including coke). In the most aggressive intensification scenario, coal consumption and carbon emissions will drop to 38% and 49%, respectively, in 2035. The yield of crude steel will largely dominate the carbon peaking of the steel industry. Promoting the short process of all-scrap electric furnaces and increasing the utilization of scrap steel are the most important measures to control coal and reduce carbon in the carbon peak stage. The roadmap for coal control and carbon reduction based on the forecasted results showed that, on the demand side, the yield of crude steel will reach its peak and begin to decline, with the level of industrialization and urbanization gradually reaching the level of developed countries, even without considering the constraints of the carbon peak and neutralization target, the growth of steel demand brought about by the construction of new energy-related infrastructure during the period of achieving carbon neutrality is relatively limited. In terms of technological progress, promoting the application of long-process energy-saving and carbon-reducing technology is a cost-effective measure in the short term, and by increasing the average ratio of blast furnace pellets at the same time, the carbon capture and storage technology will have greater carbon emission reduction potential in the long term. In terms of production capacity structure, promoting the short process of all-scrap electric furnaces is the main measure of the steel industry in the carbon peak stage, and the proportion of electric furnace steel will increase to 15%-20% by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Under the carbon neutrality target, hydrogen metallurgy is the only production process with ultra-low carbon emission potential. In the future, with the increase in the supply of green hydrogen produced by renewable energy or waste heat, hydrogen metallurgy will become a steel production process that is as important as the short process of electric furnaces based on scrap steel.
Keywords: carbon peaking; coal control; electric arc furnace; roadmap; scrap steel utilization; steel industry.