The extreme heat wave of July-August 2021 in the Athens urban area (Greece): Atmospheric and human-biometeorological analysis exploiting ultra-high resolution numerical modeling and the local climate zone framework

Abstract

Greece was affected by a prolonged and extreme heat wave (HW) event (July 28-August 05) during the abnormally hot summer of 2021, with the maximum temperature in Athens, the capital of the country, reaching up to 43.9 °C in the city center. This observation corresponds to the second highest maximum temperature recorded since 1900, based on the historical temperature time series of the National Observatory of Athens weather station at Thissio. In the present study, a multi-scale numerical modeling system is used to analyze the urban climate and thermal bioclimate in the Athens urban area (AUA) in the course of the HW event, as well as during 3 days prior to the heat wave and 3 days after the episode. The system consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, the advanced urban scheme BEP/BEM (Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model) and the human-biometeorological model RayMan Pro, and incorporates the local climate zone (LCZ) classification scheme. The system's validation results demonstrated a robust modeling set-up, characterized by high capability in capturing the observed magnitude and diurnal variation of the urban meteorological and heat stress conditions. The analysis of two- and three-dimensional fields of near-surface air temperature, humidity and wind unraveled the interplay of geographical factors (surface relief and proximity to the sea), background atmospheric circulations (Etesians and sea breeze) and HW-related synoptic forcing with the AUA's urban form. These interactions had a significant impact on the LCZs heat stress responsiveness, expressed using the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), between different regions of the study area, as well as at inter- and intra-LCZ level (statistically significant differences at 95 % confidence interval), providing thus, urban design and health-related implications that can be exploited in human thermal discomfort mitigation strategies in AUA.

Keywords: Athens; BEP/BEM; Greece; Heat waves; Human thermal comfort; Local climate zones; RayMan Pro model; Urban heat; WRF model.