The cessation of dewatering following coalfield abandonment results in the rise of minewater, which can create significant changes in the local and regional hydrogeological regime. Monitoring such change is challenging but essential to avoiding detrimental consequences such as groundwater contamination and surface flooding. Inverse modelling methods using satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) have proven capable for retrospectively mapping minewater level changes, however, there is a need for the capability to remotely monitor changes as they occur. In this study, ground deformation measurements obtained from InSAR are used to develop a method to remotely monitor the spatio-temporal rise of minewater, which could be implemented in near real-time. The approach is demonstrated over the Horlivka mining agglomeration, Ukraine, where there is no other feasible approach possible due to a lack of safe ground access. The results were blindly validated against in-situ measurements before being used to forecast the time until minewater will reach the natural water table and Earth's surface. The findings reveal that, as a result of military conflict in Donbas, an environmental catastrophe could occur where potentially radioactive minewater is forecast to reach the natural water table between May and August of 2024.
Keywords: Coal mining; Hydrogeology; InSAR; Minewater rebound; Modelling; Surface deformation.
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