Projecting future health burden associated with exposure to ambient PM2.5 and ozone in China under different climate scenarios

Yiyi Wang; Jianlin Hu; Lei Huang; Tiantian Li; Xu Yue; Xiaodong Xie; Hong Liao; Kai Chen; Meng Wang

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2022.107542

Projecting future health burden associated with exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and ozone in China under different climate scenarios

Environ Int. 2022 Nov:169:107542. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107542. Epub 2022 Sep 24.

Authors

Yiyi Wang¹, Jianlin Hu², Lei Huang³, Tiantian Li⁴, Xu Yue⁵, Xiaodong Xie⁵, Hong Liao⁵, Kai Chen⁶, Meng Wang⁷

Affiliations

¹ Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 219 Ningliu Road, Nanjing 210044, China; State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
² Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 219 Ningliu Road, Nanjing 210044, China. Electronic address: jianlinhu@nuist.edu.cn.
³ State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
⁴ National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
⁵ Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 219 Ningliu Road, Nanjing 210044, China.
⁶ Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520-8034, USA.
⁷ Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Health Professions, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA; RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: mwang54@buffalo.edu.

PMID: 36194980
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107542

Abstract

Projecting future air pollution and related health burdens remains challenging because of the complex interactions among future emissions, population, and climate change. In this study, we estimated the premature deaths attributed to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) from 2015 to 2100 under four socioeconomic climate scenarios based on an age-stratified assessment method. We found that PM_2.5 will decrease in all shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and O₃ will decrease in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, contributing to a decrease in premature mortality together with the declining total population in China. However, the benefits of a decline in population size and PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations over time will be largely offset by population aging, and premature death caused by PM_2.5 and O₃ will continue to rise till 2060-2080. This impact was greater for the O₃-related deaths than those for PM_2.5. Our study highlights the importance of future prevention strategies that must jointly improve air quality and susceptibility to aging.

Keywords: Air quality; Population aging; Premature deaths; SSP scenarios.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / adverse effects
Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollution* / adverse effects
Air Pollution* / analysis
China
Environmental Exposure / adverse effects
Ozone* / analysis
Ozone* / toxicity
Particulate Matter / adverse effects
Particulate Matter / analysis

Substances

Air Pollutants
Particulate Matter
Ozone