Modeling the potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV among men who have sex with men in Cameroon

Abstract

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are consistently burdened by HIV at higher levels than other adults. While HIV prevention programs for MSM are growing in coverage and quality, HIV incidence remains high. In response, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was introduced in 2019 to support HIV risk reduction among MSM in Cameroon. Understanding how PrEP initiation programs will change the HIV prevalence among MSM in Cameroon is important to developing effective programs.

Methods: This study uses a mathematical model to simulate population-level HIV transmission among MSM in the cities of Yaoundé and Douala, Cameroon. PrEP is incorporated into the model at rates that equal 25%, 50%, or 75% coverage after twenty years to assess the potential effects on HIV prevalence among MSM, requiring annual initiation rates of 2.5%, 6.8%, and 17.2% for Yaoundé and 2.2%, 5.6%, and 13.4% for Douala, respectively. The data utilized for this model are from a cross sectional study which recruited MSM through respondent-driven sampling of MSM in two major cities in Cameroon: Yaoundé and Douala.

Results: The model estimated an HIV prevalence of 43.2% among MSM, annual HIV diagnoses of 300 per 10,000 MSM and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage of 53.9% in Yaoundé. In Douala, estimated prevalence is 26.5% among MSM, 167 per 10,000 MSM annual diagnoses and ART coverage of 72.0%. Standalone PrEP interventions aimed at 50% coverage at the end of a 20-year program would reduce the prevalence from 43.2% to 35.4% in Yaoundé and from 26.5 to 20.1% in Douala. Combining PrEP with a 10% increase in HIV testing would decrease the number of MSM living with HIV and unaware of their status from 9.8 to 6.0% in Yaoundé and from 8.7 to 4.6% in Douala.

Conclusions: PrEP would be beneficial in reducing prevalence even at varying initiation and coverage levels. Combination of PrEP and increased HIV testing further decreased the number of undiagnosed MSM. This study supports the utility of implementing PrEP as part of comprehensive HIV prevention programming among MSM in Cameroon.

Keywords: Cameroon; Human immunodeficiency virus; Mathematical modeling; Men who have sex with men; Pre-exposure prophylaxis.