Economic evaluation of first-line nivolumab plus cabozantinib for advanced renal cell carcinoma in China

Abstract

Background: In the Checkmate9ER trial, first-line treatment with nivolumab combined with cabozantinib (NI + CA) has shown efficacy for advanced renal cell carcinoma. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the health and economic outcomes of NI + CA in China.

Methods: Clinical efficacy data were derived from pivotal phase III CheckMate 9ER trial. A three-state partitioned survival model was established based on disease progression. Progression-free survival and overall survival of NI + CA vs. sunitinib were fitted with log-logistic and log-normal distributions, respectively. Mixture cure, non-mixture cure, and Royston/Parmar spline models were used to evaluate model robustness. The results derived the computational cost from the Chinese healthcare system perspective. The primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost in US dollars, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) at the willingness-to-pay threshold in China. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were also used to assess the robustness of the model.

Results: In the base-case analysis result, 0.86 additional QALYs could be obtained in the NI+CA (3.84 QALYs) versus the sunitinib strategy (2.97 QALYs). The ICER of NI+CA compared with the sunitinib strategy was US$292,945 per QALY. The ICER value in the NI+CA strategy was higher than the Chinese willingness-to-pay threshold of US$38,024 per QALY. Although NI+CA can improve long-term patient survival significantly over sunitinib in the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma, it is unlikely to be cost-effective due to high cost. The results of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that drug cost, health utility value at the stage of disease progression, and subsequent treatment proportion had a greater impact on the stability of ICER values.

Conclusions: Nivolumab combined with cabozantinib can prolong the life of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma and improve their quality of life, but there is a corresponding increase in medical cost. The NI + CA strategy is unlikely to be considered cost-effective in the treatment of advanced RCC from the perspective of Chinese healthcare system.

Keywords: cabozantinib; cost-effectiveness; nivolumab; partitioned survival; renal cell carcinoma.