Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world. However, this may come with a cost, as increasing aquatic production is likely to impose changes in the environment. To ensure ecosystem sustainability, it is essential to think on this larger scale. This study aims to use the Delft3D model suite to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity for bivalve production in the Sado Estuary (Portugal), under present and future conditions (2050). Scenarios for increased oyster production resulted in reductions of chlorophyll a associated with increased nutrient concentrations. In the most extreme production scenario, which considered an increase of 100 ha in production area, a predicted decrease of 90 % in phytoplankton biomass was observed. Climate change (CC) was incorporated as an increase in sea level and water temperature, as well as a reduction in river flow. Under present oyster production conditions, CC revealed contrasting patterns, i.e. an increase in chlorophyll a concentrations and a reduction in nutrients. These results suggest that CC has a positive effect in counteracting the impacts of increased oyster production, however further research is necessary. All scenarios point to reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations, highlighting the need to monitor this parameter. Given the difficulty in defining what are unacceptable impacts to the ecosystem it would be prudent to include a socio-ecological framework in the future, in order to integrate ecosystem services and the perception of local stakeholders.
Keywords: Climate change; Delft3D-WAQ; Ecological carrying capacity; Ecosystem approach to aquaculture; Oyster production.
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