Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is closely related to adverse pregnancy outcomes and other diseases. Early intervention in pregnant women who are at high risk of developing GDM could help prevent adverse health consequences. The study aims to develop a simple model using the stacking ensemble method to predict GDM for women in the first trimester based on easily available factors. We used the data from the Chinese Pregnant Women Cohort Study from July 2017 to November 2018. A total of 6,848 pregnant women in the first trimester were included in the analysis. Logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were considered as base learners. Optimal feature subsets for each learner were chosen by using recursive feature elimination cross-validation. Then, we built a pipeline to process imbalance data, tune hyperparameters, and evaluate model performance. The learners with the best hyperparameters were employed in the first layer of the proposed stacking method. Their predictions were obtained using optimal feature subsets and served as meta-learner's inputs. Another LR was used as a meta-learner to obtain the final prediction results. Accuracy, specificity, error rate, and other metrics were calculated to evaluate the performance of the models. A paired samples t-test was performed to compare the model performance. In total, 967 (14.12%) women developed GDM. For base learners, the RF model had the highest accuracy (0.638 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.628-0.648)) and specificity (0.683 (0.669-0.698)) and lowest error rate (0.362 (0.352-0.372)). The stacking method effectively improved the accuracy (0.666 (95% CI 0.663-0.670)) and specificity (0.725 (0.721-0.729)) and decreased the error rate (0.333 (0.330-0.337)). The differences in the performance between the stacking method and RF were statistically significant. Our proposed stacking method based on easily available factors has better performance than other learners such as RF.
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