[GIS-based risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters of summer maize in northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin: A case study of Wangcang County, Sichuan Province, China]

Abstract

Meteorological disaster is one of the main factors restricting agriculture development in China. It is important to clarify the risk of summer maize agrometeorological disaster for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the natural disaster risk theory, we collected meteorological data and maize yield data from 1981 to 2018 in a typical area in the northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin (Wangcang County). The main disaster-causing factors affecting summer maize production were determined. A comprehensive agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment model for summer maize was constructed in combination with the sensitivity of pregnant environment and vulnerability of disaster bearing to evaluate the agrometeorological disasters risk of summer maize production in the northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin. The results showed that during the study period, high temperature in mature period, rainstorm in flowering period, rainstorm in mature period, continuous rain in filling period and drought in booting stage were the main agrometeorological disasters affecting the growth and development of summer maize. The agrometeorological disaster risk of maize generally distributed in a southwest-northeast pattern, with the distribution areas of high-risk and higher-risk areas accounting for half of the total area of Wangcang County. The high-risk areas were mainly located in the southwest of the county, which was basically consistent with the high-value areas of hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity. The low-risk areas were mostly concentrated in the western part of county territory, which were also low-risk areas of high temperature in mature period, rainstorm in mature period, and rainstorm in flowering period disasters.

Keywords: agrometeorological disaster; disaster-inducing factor; maize; risk assessment.