Short-term outcomes of colorectal cancer surgery in older patients: a novel nomogram predicting postoperative morbi-mortality

Langenbecks Arch Surg. 2022 Dec;407(8):3587-3597. doi: 10.1007/s00423-022-02688-1. Epub 2022 Sep 21.

Abstract

Purpose: To analyze short-term outcomes of curative-intent cancer surgery in all adult patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer undergoing surgery from January 2010 to December 2019 and determine risk factors for postoperative complications and mortality.

Methods: Retrospective study conducted at a single tertiary university institution. Patients were stratified by age into two groups: < 75 years and ≥ 75 years. Primary outcome was the influence of age on 30-day complications and mortality. Independent risk factors for postoperative adverse events or mortality were analyzed, and two novel nomograms were constructed.

Results: Of the 1486 patients included, 580 were older (≥ 75 years). Older subjects presented more comorbidities and tumors were located mainly in right colon (45.7%). After matching, no between-group differences in surgical postoperative complications were observed. The 30-day mortality rate was 5.3% for the older and 0.8% for the non-older group (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the independent risk factors for postoperative complications were peripheral vascular disease, chronic pulmonary disease, severe liver disease, postoperative transfusion, and surgical approach. Independent risk factors for 30-day mortality were age ≥ 80 years, cerebrovascular disease, severe liver disease, and postoperative transfusion. The model was internally and externally validated, showing high accuracy.

Conclusion: Patients aged ≥ 75 years had similar postoperative complications but higher 30-day mortality than their younger counterparts. Patients with peripheral vascular disease, chronic pulmonary disease, or severe liver disease should be informed of higher postoperative complications. But patients aged ≥ 80 suffering cerebrovascular disease, severe liver disease, or needing postoperative transfusion should be warned of significantly increased risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer; Morbidity; Mortality; Nomograms; Older patients; Risk factors.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Colorectal Neoplasms* / pathology
  • Humans
  • Lung Diseases*
  • Nomograms
  • Peripheral Vascular Diseases* / complications
  • Postoperative Complications / epidemiology
  • Postoperative Complications / etiology
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors