Designing an energy security index with a sustainable development approach for energy-exporting countries using fuzzy BWM method

Abstract

Energy-exporting countries have always been isolated when it comes to energy security since according to the traditional definition of energy security, it is believed that there are no energy security-associated problems in these countries. Over the recent years, exporting countries have encountered the issue of single-product economy on a much larger scale, due to large oil revenues; they are facing more and more problems in the field of energy security every day. In this regard, the present paper primarily identified the challenges and factors affecting energy security and sustainable development related to energy in these countries. Afterwards, this information was employed for the construction of a composite index to measure the energy security and sustainability in these countries using the fuzzy BWM method. This composite index was utilized for a period of 14 years in five energy-exporting countries, namely Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. The results obtained herein were fully consistent with the process of the changes in energy security in the mentioned countries and indicated the weaknesses and obstacles of these countries in the field of oil and oil economy. The results of a 14-year evaluation of the composite index show that Saudi Arabia, followed by Russia, Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, displays the best performance in the field of energy security and sustainability and has an ascending trend and significant progress in the index value. Although Russia is in second place, it represents a descending trend. Iran, which is in third place on the slope of changes, has a falling but gentler trend. Iraq has a rising trend in the index value despite being in fourth place. The lowest level of energy security belongs to Venezuela with a sharp descending trend and naturally the worst performance in the field of energy security and sustainability. Examining these obstacles, it was observed that the economic-technological issues were a heavier burden than the social and environmental ones. In the economic-technological sector, oil-free per capita GDP, the share of non-energy exports in total exports, and the share of investment in the energy sector in total investment were the biggest obstacles, indicating the urgent need to change macro policies, exit the single-product economy, and adopt policies to increase the value added and reduce the sale of raw energy.

Keywords: Composite index; Energy security; Exporting countries; Fuzzy BWM; Sustainability.