Risky behavior analysis for cross-border drivers: A logit model and qualitative comparative analysis of odds of fault and injury vulnerability in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau

Abstract

Introduction: Due to globalization and the acceleration of cross-border exchanges, cross-border risk behaviors have received widespread attention. Previous research has concluded that foreign cross-border drivers engage in relatively more risk-taking behavior patterns and are likely to experience a higher crash rate or be more inclined to cause severe crashes. However, there is little evidence on the comparison of drivers who belong to the same ethnic group driving across within-country borders.

Method: Based on the cross-border motor-vehicle crash reports in 2006-2010 from the Road Traffic Accident Database of the China Ministry of Public Security, this paper examines the risk factors of being at fault and getting killed or seriously injured in cross-border traffic crashes and casual paths toward crash liability and injury severity for Hong Kong and Macao drivers driving in the Chinese mainland.

Results: There are extremely complex factors behind drivers from Hong Kong and Macao causing at-fault crashes or sustaining fatal and serious injuries in the Chinese mainland. Factors such as gender, age, illumination, and weather conditions do not individually affect the risk of driver at-fault crashes or severe casualties in the crashes among Hong Kong and Macao drivers driving in the Chinese mainland. Nonetheless, collectively, these factors influence them along with different vehicle types, roads, and environmental factors.

Conclusions: This paper provides more theoretical findings for understanding the compound effect of multiple risk factors involving cross-border at-fault crashes or serious casualties. The conclusions of this research are valuable as representative references for cross-border risk management policies.

Practical applications: To reduce the effects of different factors on cross-border risky driving behaviors and/or injurious crashes, various measures should be focused on, including specialized driver training, enhancement of the roads/environment, development of effective road safety campaigns, and directives facilitating cross-border cooperation in the field of road safety.

Keywords: Causal paths; Cross-border driving; Cross-border risk behavior; One country-two systems; Risk factors.