Modern healthcare practice, especially in intensive care units, produces a vast amount of multivariate time series of health-related data, e.g., multi-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), pulse waveform, blood pressure waveform and so on. As a result, timely and accurate prediction of medical intervention (e.g., intravenous injection) becomes possible, by exploring such semantic-rich time series. Existing works mainly focused on onset prediction at the granularity of hours that was not suitable for medication intervention in emergency medicine. This research proposes a Multi-Variable Hybrid Attentive Model (MVHA) to predict the impending need of medical intervention, by jointly mining multiple time series. Specifically, a two-level attention mechanism is designed to capture the pattern of fluctuations and trends of different time series. This work applied MVHA to the prediction of the impending intravenous injection need of critical patients at the intensive care units. Experiments on the MIMIC Waveform Database demonstrated that the proposed model achieves a prediction accuracy of 0.8475 and an ROC-AUC of 0.8318, which significantly outperforms baseline models.
Keywords: attention mechanism; hybrid attentive model; medical intervention; multivariate time series.