Using functional indicators to detect state changes in terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract

Indicators to predict ecosystem state change are urgently needed to cope with the degradation of ecosystem services caused by global change. With the development of new technologies for measuring ecosystem function with fine spatiotemporal resolution over broad areas, we are in the era of 'big data'. However, it is unclear how large, emerging datasets can be used to anticipate ecosystem state change. We propose the construction of indicators based on functional variables (flows) and state variables (pools) to predict future ecosystem state changes. The indicators identified here may be useful signals for doing so. In addition, functional indicators have explicit ecological meanings that can identify the ecological mechanism that is causing state changes, and can thus be used to improve ecosystem models.

Keywords: ecosystem functions; ecosystem model; ecosystem state change; global change; tipping point.