Evaluation of carbon neutrality capacity based on a novel comprehensive model

Abstract

The Chinese government actively participates in global climate governance and has proposed to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. Due to large differences in regional development, local governments need to comprehend their own carbon neutrality status and then scientifically plan a path to achieve carbon neutrality. In this study, we constructed a new carbon neutrality capacity evaluation indicator system named CNCIS, which can dynamically reflect the balance of energy, economy and environment in the process of reducing carbon emissions. In addition, to scientifically evaluate the carbon neutrality capacity, we proposed a novel comprehensive evaluation model, namely, the BWM-Entropy TOPSIS method, which can solve the unbalanced weighting and low efficiency problem in weighting indicators and improve the applicability of TOPSIS. Finally, based on real data from 30 provinces in China, we proved the effectiveness of our method and analyse the reasons for the different carbon neutrality capacities of the provinces. The main findings are as follows: (1) Clean and efficient utilization of energy had the greatest impact on achieving carbon neutrality, which is mainly represented by carbon emissions intensity, CO2 emissions per capita and coal consumption per capita. (2) In the energy, economy and environmental aspects, the factors that most affect carbon neutrality were carbon emissions intensity, the volume of technology marketing and water consumption per capita respectively. (3) Sorted by carbon neutrality capacities, the provinces could be divided into three categories, in which economically developed provinces more easily achieve carbon neutrality while resource-based provinces are the hardest. Based on these results, corresponding suggestions were proposed to help local governments scientifically plan a path to achieve carbon neutrality.

Keywords: 3E system; BWM-Entropy TOPSIS; CNCIS; Capacity assessment; Carbon neutrality; Comprehensive evaluation model.