International trade leads to a redistribution of pollutant emissions related to the production of goods and services and subsequently affects their severe health impacts. Here, we present a framework of emissions inventories, input-output model, numerical atmospheric chemistry model, and estimates of the global burden of disease. Specifically, we assess emissions and health impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), a carcinogenic byproduct of production activities, and consider income, production, final sale, and consumption stages of the global supply chain between 2012 and 2015. We find that in 2015, global anthropogenic PAH emissions were 304 Gg (95% CI: 213~421 Gg) and estimated related lifetime lung cancer deaths were 6.9 × 104 (95% CI: 1.8 × 104~1.5 × 105 deaths). The role of trade in driving the PAH-related health risks was greater than that in driving the emissions. Our findings indicate that international cooperation is needed to optimise the global supply chains and mitigate PAH emissions and health impacts.
Keywords: Environmental economics; Environmental impact; Socioeconomic scenarios.
© The Author(s) 2022.