Diabetes mellitus prediction based on the triglyceride and glucose index

Abstract

Introduction: In Mexico, type 2 Diabetes mellitus (DM2) presents epidemiological levels with a prevalence rate of 9.12% and with the highest overweight and obesity rates worldwide. To overcome this situation, strategies must be created focused on the identification of subjects at risk. The Triglyceride and Glucose (TyG) index, was created for the detection of insulin resistance, has recently been used in the prediction of DM. The objective of the present study was to determine the predictive power of the TyG index in a cohort from Mexico City.

Methods: 3195 patients were selected from a cohort of patients from the chronic degenerative area of the Health Centers of the Public Health Services of Mexico City. The ability of the TyG index in predicting diabetes was evaluated as: ln [Fasting triglycerides (mg/dl) x fasting glucose (mg/dl)/2]. after a follow-up of at least 4.5 years. A CHAID test was determined that was corroborated by a ROC test.

Results: the value of the TyG index was significantly higher for patients who develop DM2. Values of AUC=0.934, 95% CI: 0.924-0.924. Obtaining a cut-off point of 9.45 in women; in men: DM2 AUC=0.824, 95% CI: 0.824-0.873, and cut-off point 9.12.

Conclusions: The TyG index is a good marker in the prediction of DM2. The CHAID determination is a useful tool in the prediction of DM2.

Keywords: CHAID; Chi-squared automated interaction detector analysis; Diabetes mellitus tipo 2; Diabetes mellitus type 2; Indice de triglicéridos y glucose; Obesidad; Obesity; TyG index.