Fractional SEIR model and data-driven predictions of COVID-19 dynamics of Omicron variant

Chaos. 2022 Jul;32(7):071101. doi: 10.1063/5.0099450.

Abstract

We study the dynamic evolution of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant via a fractional susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. Preliminary data suggest that the symptoms of Omicron infection are not prominent and the transmission is, therefore, more concealed, which causes a relatively slow increase in the detected cases of the newly infected at the beginning of the pandemic. To characterize the specific dynamics, the Caputo-Hadamard fractional derivative is adopted to refine the classical SEIR model. Based on the reported data, we infer the fractional order and time-dependent parameters as well as unobserved dynamics of the fractional SEIR model via fractional physics-informed neural networks. Then, we make short-time predictions using the learned fractional SEIR model.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19*
  • Disease Susceptibility
  • Humans
  • Pandemics
  • SARS-CoV-2

Supplementary concepts

  • SARS-CoV-2 variants