Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths. The slow evolution of precancerous lesions to malignant tumors provides a broad time frame for preventing PCa. To characterize prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) progression, we conducted longitudinal studies on Pten(i)pe-/- mice that recapitulate prostate carcinogenesis in humans. We found that early PINs are hypoxic and that hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1A) signaling is activated in luminal cells, thus enhancing malignant progression. Luminal HIF1A dampens immune surveillance and drives luminal plasticity, leading to the emergence of cells that overexpress Transglutaminase 2 (TGM2) and have impaired androgen signaling. Elevated TGM2 levels in patients with PCa are associated with shortened progression-free survival after prostatectomy. Last, we show that pharmacologically inhibiting HIF1A impairs cell proliferation and induces apoptosis in PINs. Therefore, our study demonstrates that HIF1A is a target for PCa prevention and that TGM2 is a promising prognostic biomarker of early relapse after prostatectomy.