New Diagnostic Model for the Differentiation of Diabetic Nephropathy From Non-Diabetic Nephropathy in Chinese Patients

Abstract

Background: The disease pathology for diabetes mellitus patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may be diabetic nephropathy (DN), non-diabetic renal disease (NDRD), or DN combined with NDRD. Considering that the prognosis and treatment of DN and NDRD differ, their differential diagnosis is of significance. Renal pathological biopsy is the gold standard for diagnosing DN and NDRD. However, it is invasive and cannot be implemented in many patients due to contraindications. This article constructed a new noninvasive evaluation model for differentiating DN and NDRD.

Methods: We retrospectively screened 1,030 patients with type 2 diabetes who has undergone kidney biopsy from January 2005 to March 2017 in a single center. Variables were ranked according to importance, and the machine learning methods (random forest, RF, and support vector machine, SVM) were then used to construct the model. The final model was validated with an external group (338 patients, April 2017-April 2019).

Results: In total, 929 patients were assigned. Ten variables were selected for model development. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROCs) for the RF and SVM methods were 0.953 and 0.947, respectively. Additionally, 329 patients were analyzed for external validation. The AUCROCs for the external validation of the RF and SVM methods were 0.920 and 0.911, respectively.

Conclusion: We successfully constructed a predictive model for DN and NDRD using machine learning methods, which were better than our regression methods.

Clinical trial registration: ClinicalTrial.gov, NCT03865914.

Keywords: diabetic nephropathies; diagnosis model; machine learning; non-diabetic renal disease; renal biopsy.