Carbon dioxide mainly comes from industrial economic activities. Industrial structure optimization is an effective way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper uses the panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2019, uses the Theil index to calculate the industrial structure rationalization index, and uses the proportion of industrial added value to calculate the industrial structure upgrade index. By constructing the STIRPAT model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of industrial structure rationalization and upgrade on carbon emissions. The results show that the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration significantly inhibit carbon emissions. Compared with the rationalization of the industrial structure, the upgrading of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has a better effect on carbon emission reduction. For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, government expenditure on science and technology can promote the upgrading of industrial structure to a certain extent, thereby reducing carbon emissions. There is a big gap between the industrial structure development level of Hebei province and that of Beijing and Tianjin. Finally, based on the conclusion, this paper puts forward the policy enlightenment of promoting the optimization process of industrial structure and reducing carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.
Keywords: carbon emission; industrial structure upgrading; rationalization of industrial structure; the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.