Predictive Value of Cribriform and Intraductal Carcinoma for the Nomogram-based Selection of Prostate Cancer Patients for Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection

Abstract

Objective: To assess the predictive value of biopsy-identified cribriform carcinoma and/or intraductal carcinoma (CR/IDC) within the Briganti and MSKCC nomograms predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with primary prostate cancer (PCa).

Methods: We retrospectively included 393 PCa patients who underwent radical prostatectomy with extended pelvic lymph node dissection at 3 tertiary referral centers. We externally validated 2 prediction tools: the Briganti 2012 nomogram and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram. Both nomograms were augmented with CR/IDC. The original model was compared with the CR/IDC-updated model using the likelihood ratio test. The performance of the prediction tools was assessed using calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.

Results: Overall, 109 (28%) men were diagnosed with LNM. Calibration plots of the Briganti and MSKCC nomograms demonstrated an underestimation of the LNM risk across clinically relevant thresholds (≤15%). The addition of CR/IDC to the Briganti nomogram increased the fit of the data (χ²(1) = 4.30, P = .04), but did not improve the area under the curve (AUC) (0.69, 95% CI 0.63-0.75 vs 0.69, 95% CI 0.64-0.75). Incorporation of CR/IDC in the MSKCC nomogram resulted in an increased fit on the data (χ²(1) = 10.04, P <.01), but did not increase the AUC (0.66, 95% CI 0.60-0.72 vs 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.74). The addition of CR/IDC to the Briganti and MSKCC nomograms did not improve the clinical risk prediction.

Conclusion: Incorporation of CR/IDC into the 2 clinically most used pre-radical prostatectomy nomograms does not improve LNM prediction in a multinational, contemporary PCa cohort.