Do anthropogenic and natural factors elevate the haze pollution in the South Asian countries? Evidence from long-term cointegration and VECM causality estimation

Abstract

Anthropogenic and natural factors lead to substantial environmental degradation. This shift is aligned with the country's overall development, resulting in high demand for energy resources and a dramatic shift in human activities that contribute to haze pollution. Some of the countries in the South Asian region are ranked between one and twenty on the list of countries with the highest levels of PM2.5 pollution. The member countries have taken many steps to tackle global warming, but concern about haze pollution was found limited. Moreover, very little research was conducted on haze pollution, which led us to conduct this research in this region. This study used the panel data from 1998 to 2018 and a set of econometric models like long-term cointegrating relationship, fully modified ordinary least squares, and vector error-correction model Granger causality tests to examine the major drivers like anthropogenic and natural factors that might elevate haze pollution. Furthermore, our empirical results depict that (1) there is a long-term cointegrating relation between haze and the factors studied. (2) Energy consumption, urbanisation, and economic growth are the primary drivers of environmental degradation. (3) Rainfall has the most substantial influence on reducing haze pollution. The study concluded that (a) if the countries continue to develop at the same pace, all factors studied will continue to drive haze pollution to rise. (b) A decrease in PM2.5 pollution requires improvements in regional rainfall through vegetation, reducing reliance on fossil fuel-based energy sources, and increasing environmental education. (c) Slowing down the drive for urbanisation would not be cost-effective in reducing haze pollution in the region in the short run. Thus, reducing haze by adjusting the factors studied would not be easy in the short run and require the careful adoption of long-term policies.

Keywords: FMOLS; Long-run cointegration; Meteorological factor; PM2.5; South Asia; VECM causality.